文獻來源：Jane U. Jepsen, Snorre B. Hagen, Stein-Rune Karlsen, and Rolf A. Ims. 2009. Phase-dependent outbreak dynamics of geometrid moth linked to host plant phenology. Proc R Soc B 276: 4119-4128. [link]
作者選在北歐芬諾斯堪地亞的北方白樺木森林，分析由週期性的尺蛾幼蟲大發生所造成、與階段有關的( phase-dependent )空間動態，觀察期間為2000–2008之間最近幾次的大暴發。作者使用人造衛星產生的時間序列，比較蛾幼蟲造成的落葉傳染和整個地區生長季節開始初期，以調查落葉模式和大發生傳播之間的關係。此外，為了評估蛾與其寄主植物之間物候吻合的程度是否可能是「莫倫效應」背後的機制，作者測試在於落葉與生長季的初始之間、是否存在與階段有關的(phase-dependent )統一性在空間同步的樣式。
Climatically driven Moran effects have often been invoked as the most likely cause of regionally synchronized outbreaks of insect herbivores without identifying the exact mechanism. However, the degree of match between host plant and larval phenology is crucial for the growth and survival of many spring-feeding pest insects, suggesting that a phenological match/mismatch-driven Moran effect may act as a synchronizing agent.
We analyse the phase-dependent spatial dynamics of defoliation caused by cyclically outbreaking geometrid moths in northern boreal birch forest in Fennoscandia through the most recent massive outbreak (2000–2008). We use satellite-derived time series of the prevalence of moth defoliation and the onset of the growing season for the entire region to investigate the link between the patterns of defoliation and outbreak spread. In addition, we examine whether a phase-dependent coherence in the pattern of spatial synchrony exists between defoliation and onset of the growing season, in order to evaluate if the degree of matching phenology between the moth and their host plant could be the mechanism behind a Moran effect.
The strength of regional spatial synchrony in defoliation and the pattern of defoliation spread were both highly phase-dependent. The incipient phase of the outbreak was characterized by high regional synchrony in defoliation and long spread distances, compared with the epidemic and crash phase. Defoliation spread was best described using a two-scale stratified spread model, suggesting that defoliation spread is governed by two processes operating at different spatial scale. The pattern of phase-dependent spatial synchrony was coherent in both defoliation and onset of the growing season. This suggests that the timing of spring phenology plays a role in the large-scale synchronization of birch forest moth outbreaks.